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Commercial intelligence · Specialty pharma

Pharma Commercial Forecasting That Scales With Precision.

Sharper numbers, sooner. We turn the demand signals you already own — NRx, TRx, NBRx, scripts and fills — into a forecast leadership funds strategy on, then measure it against actuals and refine.

Dataiku software partner · built for teams at Telix, Azurity, Alkermes, and UCB.

The short answer

Pharma commercial forecasting projects demand across NRx, TRx, and NBRx, reconciles scripts written against fills dispensed, and scales from national down to prescriber level. Done right, it isn't a spreadsheet exercise. It's the system your commercial team plans, funds, and defends strategy against.

The problem

Commercial forecasts should drive strategy — not eat your analysts' time.

National, state, indication-level demand, forecast by hand, across a portfolio. It's slow, it's fragile, and the moment a leader asks “why,” the model can't answer for itself.

The demand exists.
The data exists.
The time to turn one into a number you'd stake a plan on is what's missing.

The metrics you plan against: NRx, TRx, and NBRx.

NBRx

New-to-brand

Your cleanest early read on real adoption — patients new to the product.

NRx

New scripts

The pace of new prescribing in a period. Momentum, week over week.

TRx

Total scripts

New plus refills — the installed base and the durability of demand.

Market & product, triangulated

Forecast. Measure. Refine.

We forecast the market and your product, and triangulate across multiple methodologies — ensemble, modeled, and estimated — rather than betting the plan on one fragile model. Then we measure every forecast against actuals and refine each cycle.

The number gets sharper over time — and the field and territory planning built on it sharpens with it.

Actuals and forecasts — market & product TRx
Actuals and forecasts for market and product TRxMarket TRx200K220K240KProduct TRx20K22K24KACTUALSFORECASTJan 22Jul 22Jan 23Jul 23
Actual Ensemble Modeled Market TRx Estimated NBRx Modeled NBRx Estimated Market TRx
How Rower does it

We close the loop from signal to plan.

The forecast isn't the model. It's the decision the model lets you make. So every engagement runs the whole distance — and the technology stays in service of the number, not the headline.

SeeDecideActTrack

We put predictive precision in leaders' hands in weeks — then Track it against actuals so it keeps earning their trust.

Predictive precision, in weeks — not a platform to babysit.

You get defensible numbers, faster, and a firm that knows exactly where the tools help and where they don't. Commercial leaders don't need another platform pitch. They need the decision the platform was supposed to deliver.

Ensemble & multi-method forecastingTableau & Power BIIQVIA / SymphonyClaims & specialty pharmacy data
Software Partner We build and productionize forecasting models where they belong — in your stack, not a slide.
Precision where it counts

Down to the prescriber. Reconciled to the fill.

A national number is where forecasting starts, not where decisions get made. We build to the granularity your field and access teams actually plan against.

HCP-level and territory forecasting

National forecasts are the starting line. We build down to state, territory, and individual prescriber, so a regional lead plans against their own number — not a company-wide average that hides where demand actually is.

Scripts written vs. fills dispensed

Written isn't dispensed. Abandonment, prior auth, and reversals open a gap between them. We reconcile TRx/NRx signals against specialty-pharmacy dispense and claims, so your forecast reflects what actually reached patients.

What you get

By decision, not by dataset.

Every row ties to a decision a commercial lead actually makes — and how we get there.

How pharma commercial forecasting decisions map to what Rower builds.
DecisionThe question a leader asksWhat you getHow we get there
Brand demandWhat will NRx / TRx / NBRx do next?A demand forecast leadership funds againstPredictive models on your TRx/NRx signals
Forecast accuracyIs the forecast holding up?Forecast-vs-actuals tracking, refined each cycleActuals feedback loop in Dataiku
Scripts vs. fillsWhat's actually reaching patients?Written-vs-dispensed truth, reconciledClaims & specialty pharmacy status
Geographic planWhere is demand growing, and where isn't it?State & territory forecasts your field can act onGeo demand & alignment data
Prescriber precisionWhich HCPs drive the curve?HCP-level demand your reps can prioritizePrescriber data & call activity

Bundled, this becomes part of PharmaIQ — our commercial intelligence layer for specialty pharma, tuned to your brand.

Proof

Best-in-class forecasting, in production.

Case study

Best-in-class pharmaceutical commercial forecasting

A global pharma company scaled national, state, and indication-level forecasting with machine learning — improving accuracy, upskilling the team, and freeing analysts for the strategic calls.

Read the case study →
“Rower did not just build dashboards. They designed a commercial intelligence platform that connected sales, marketing, and operations into one coherent experience — a framework our teams could execute against, not just report from. A fundamentally different kind of partner.”
Rashad Rahman
Rashad Rahman
VP, Enterprise Data & Analytics, Azurity Pharmaceuticals
Trusted by pharma commercial & data leaders
TelixAzurityAlkermes
Questions leaders ask

Pharma commercial forecasting, answered.

The questions we hear most from brand, forecasting, and commercial-ops leaders.

What is pharma commercial forecasting?

Pharma commercial forecasting projects future demand for a brand so commercial teams can plan, fund, and defend decisions. It models scripts and fills over time — typically NRx, TRx, and NBRx — across national, geographic, and indication levels, and turns that into a number leadership can act on rather than a spreadsheet nobody trusts.

What's the difference between NRx, TRx, and NBRx?

NRx is new prescriptions written in a period. TRx is total prescriptions — new plus refills — and reflects momentum. NBRx is new-to-brand: prescriptions for patients new to your product, the cleanest early signal of real adoption. A good forecast reads all three together: NBRx for the leading edge, NRx for pace, TRx for the installed base.

How do you keep a forecast accurate over time?

We measure every forecast against actuals each cycle and feed the variance back into the model. Accuracy compounds — and because the refined numbers flow straight into territory and field planning, your sales teams plan against demand that keeps getting sharper.

Scripts written vs. fills dispensed — which should we forecast on?

Both, and knowing the gap matters. Scripts written can differ from fills dispensed because of abandonment, prior auth, and reversals. In retail you typically see this through TRx/NRx from IQVIA or Symphony; in specialty, dispense and status data from specialty pharmacies is the truth. We reconcile the two so your forecast reflects what actually reached patients.

Do we need IQVIA or Symphony data to forecast?

Not necessarily. We forecast on the data you already license — IQVIA, Symphony, claims, or specialty pharmacy feeds — and connect it rather than forcing a new vendor. If a genuine data gap blocks a decision, we'll say so plainly.

Can you forecast at the HCP or territory level, not just national?

Yes. National forecasts are the starting point, not the finish. We build down to state, territory, and prescriber granularity where the decisions actually happen — so a regional lead can plan against their number, not a company-wide average.

How is this different from buying a forecasting tool?

A tool gives you capability; it still needs someone who knows demand, data, and the commercial decision to run it. As a Dataiku software partner we build models that run in production — but the differentiator is a team that knows what to do with them. You keep the system and its logic when we're done.

How fast can we stand up a forecast we trust?

Weeks, not quarters. We start with the single forecast that matters most to your number, wire up the data behind it, and get a version in leaders' hands early — then extend across products, geographies, and indications from there.

Talk to us

Tell us the number you're forecasting against.

One conversation. We'll tell you, plainly, what it would take to get a forecast you'd stake a plan on.

Book a diagnostic call

Fifteen minutes. A straight answer.

We'll tell you what it would take to get a forecast your commercial team can plan against.

Book a diagnostic call

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